
SEMI has painted an uncharacteristically gloomy picture of semiconductor equipment sales in 2008 and 2009 that slightly exceeds projections from independent market research firms such as Gartner Dataquest and
VLSI Research. SEMI has projected sales to reach $30.91 billion in 2008, a decline of almost 28%, compared to 2007. The trade association is also projecting a further decline in equipment sales of 21% for 2009.
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The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) has released its forecasts for 2008 and 2009. The global semiconductor market is expected to grow 2.5% on an annualized basis to $261.9 billion in 2008, which have been revised downwards 0.7 percentage points compared to the forecast that WSTS had issued in May, 2008. The fall is due to weaker than expected sales in the fourth quarter, WSTS said.
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Worldwide October semiconductor sales declined by 2.4 percent in October to US$22.5 billion compared to sales of US$23.0 billion in October 2007, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). October sales were 2.1 percent lower than the US$23.0 billion in September 2008. The SIA noted that if memory products were excluded from the figures, sales would have seen a 3.8 percent rise in October, 2008 compared to the same month last year.
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Qimonda AG has said that it will delay the release of its fourth quarter financial results until mid-December, 2008 as discussions with third parties are at a critical stage regarding the future of the company. Qimonda warned that with its gross cash position of €432 million, it faced a liquidity crisis in the coming quarter and could become insolvent should discussions with third parties fail to result in an improvement to its financial position.
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Elpida Memory, Inc. has finalized its acquisition of Rexchip Electronics Corp. as its subsidiary via the purchase of a portion of its strategic partner’s shares. Elpida set up the Rexchip joint venture with its partner Powerchip Semiconductor Corp. in November 2006, and this recent move will see the acquisition of Rexchip as a subsidiary of Elpida as it increases its share portion from 48.8% to 52%. The move is claimed to be a result of the “prolonged slump” in DRAM market prices, and the resulting strategic move on the part of Elpida is geared to serve to better its supply-demand balance.
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Qimonda AG has said that it has received the agreed second tranche of US$200 million in cash from Micron Technology for its share of Inotera Memories, which was originally announced in October, 2008. Other customary closing conditions have been fulfilled, Qimonda said. Qimonda took a €300 million book loss on the transaction.
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VLSI Research has further downgraded its assessment of semiconductor and display equipment sales for 2008 and 2009, resulting in a decline of 24% in 2008, compared to 2007 and a further fall of 25% in 2009, resulting in almost a 50% fall over two years.The market research firm had previously guided a fall in equipment sales of -12% for 2009.
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The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) is projecting the first decline in sales since 2001. 2009 sales will decline by 5.6 percent to $246.7 billion before resuming growth in 2010. Sales will grow by 7.4 percent in 2010 to $264.9 billion and by 7.5 percent in 2011 to $284.7 billion.
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iSuppli Corp., has revised its 2008 outlook for the semiconductor industry, joing Gartner Dataquest in projecting negative growth for 2008 over 2007. Global semiconductor revenue now is expected to decrease to $266.6 billion for the full year 2008, down 2 percent from $272.0 billion in 2007. . iSuppli's previous forecast, from September, called for 3.5 percent growth and similar to that of Gartner’s.
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The global credit crunch and looming economic recession has pulled the semiconductor down to the point that Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons thinks the industry has now entered its eleventh recession. Penn expects the industry to still post a 2.2 percent growth figure for 2008, which is inline with the SIA’s latest projection, but 2009 growth will decline a further 2 percent.
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