A new forecast for global semiconductor sales over the next three years has been released by the Semiconductor Industry Association, which is significantly more optimistic about the sales growth expected in the next few years. Importantly, the SIA has raised its forecast for 2009, projecting global sales to reach US$219.7 billion, a decline from 2008 of 11.6%. The previous guidance given in June, 2009 noted an expected sales decline of 21.3%, with sales reaching US$195.6 billion for 2009.
“The new forecast is brighter than our earlier projections, reflecting an improving global economy,” said SIA President George Scalise. “Unit sales of key demand drivers – including PCs and cell phones, which together account for about 60 percent of semiconductor demand – have been stronger than previously predicted. We remain cautiously optimistic for the longer term. The current forecast is closely tied to projections of continuing improvement in the worldwide economy.”
As can be seen in the chart below, the SIA is now projecting growth of 10.2% in 2010, compared to 2009 and a further 8.4% increase in IC sales in 2011. Sales are now projected to reach US$242.1 billion in 2010 and US$262.3 billion in 2011.
What is unclear from the revised projections is whether adequate consideration was taken of very tight fab capacity that is expected to continue through 2010 and the impact this has on ASP’s, should the global economic recovery continue.