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Semiconductor sales are still expected to decline in 2009, compared to the previous year and also not recover to pre-2007 levels until 2012, according to an updated forecast from market research firm iSuppli Corp. The good new though is that the sales decline is less than previously expected this year. The market research firm now expects IC sales to decline by 16.5% rather than the severe 23% fall reported earlier this year. Apparently, iSuppli had already adjusted its forecast in early August, 2009, but decided to keep that secret with paying customers.

Growth is expected to return in 2010 with a 13.8% rise over 2009, however the rise will not be visible until May, according to iSuppli.
 
“Lack of visibility from the end market and through the electronics supply chain was a major problem for semiconductor suppliers in the first quarter,” said Dale Ford, senior vice president, market intelligence services for iSuppli. “However, due to a stabilizing economic environment in the second quarter and improving supply chain visibility, semiconductor shipments rebounded as inventories were replenished and modest forward-looking purchases were made.”

With a V-Shaped recovery ahead global semiconductor revenue will rise to US$282.7 billion in 2012, compared to US$273.4 billion in 2007. However, the current downturn would have lasted 20 months, slightly more than the 17 month downturn that was the worst in the industry’s history.