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IC Insights revises semiconductor forecast: Market could top 2007 record revenue

09 March 2010 | By Mark Osborne | News > Fab Management

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IC Insights, Bill McCleanIn the March update to The McClean Report, IC Insights is now forecasting that the worldwide IC market is expected to rebound 27% in 2010 to US$253 billion. At the beginning of the year, the market research firm expected a 15% growth over 2009, though had then suggested that should first quarter sales show any growth over fourth quarter 2009, then a 25% plus growth figure would occur. The first quarter is seasonally the weakest in a given year in the industry. IC Insights believes that preliminary data shows that the first quarter saw revenue grow 3% over fourth quarter figures.

IC Insights is also forecasting another 15% growth in 2011 to US$290 billion. At US$253 billion, the 2010 IC market would exceed by 8% the previous high of US$234 billion reached in 2007, the market research firm noted in the new report.

The market research firm also said that there has been a strong increases in average selling prices of DRAM, noting that the DRAM market will surge at least 74% in 2010, compared to the previous year. If the January 2010 DRAM market stayed flat for the next 11 months, the 2010/2009 DRAM market would register 61% growth, according to IC Insights.

However, as 2010 progresses, IC Insights expects the quarterly year-over-year comparisons to fall back to more realistic levels. IC Insights' forecasts for the 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q sequential quarterly IC market increases in 2010 include a relatively flat 2Q, a 9% increase in 3Q, and a moderate 3% increase in 4Q. These sequential growth rate forecasts remain essentially unchanged from our previous expectations.

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