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Gartner ups semiconductor forecast but growth momentum slowing

03 September 2010 | By Mark Osborne | News > Fab Management

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Market research firm, Gartner has revised its semiconductor industry forecast just one quarter after further revisions as stronger than expected growth for 2010 is now assured. Worldwide semiconductor revenue in 2010 is forecast to reach US$300 billion, a 31.5% increase from 2009 revenue of US$228 billion. Previously, Gartner expected growth of 27.1%. However, Gartner claims growth in the second-half of the year will be below seasonal levels as semiconductor sales align with electronic system sales.

"Semiconductor growth in the first half of 2010 was very strong, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the industry cannot maintain the momentum in the second half of 2010 and into 2011," said Bryan Lewis, research vice president at Gartner. "While the impact of the European credit crisis has subsided, the global economic recovery is slowing, and there is concern that electronic equipment vendors are adopting a cautious stance, ready to cut production at the first signs of slowing customer orders."

According to Gartner, DRAM revenue growth is set to peak in 2010.

"Due to early strength in the PC market and supply constraints, the DRAM industry has been very profitable, with revenue set to increase by 82.5 percent to nearly $42 billion in 2010. However, during the second half of 2011, this is set to change, and we expect a DRAM downturn in 2012 as sales decline 29 percent," added Lewis.

However, growth is expected to continue in 2011, albeit at a much reduced rate. Gartner forecasts worldwide semiconductor revenue to total US$314 billion in 2011, a 4.6% increase from 2010.

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