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Gartner lowers semiconductor growth for 2008 and 2009
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The economic woes have forced Gartner to revise its semiconductor industry growth projections. Worldwide semiconductor revenue for 2009 was forecast to be $307.7 billion, a 7.8 percent increase from 2008 revenue. However, Gartner now expects 2009 revenues to total approximately $282 billion, a 1 percent increase from 2008 projections or a removal of $25 billion in potential sales.
"Semiconductor growth was surprisingly strong until recently, given the very weak economic environment, but this will start to change in the fourth quarter of 2008," said Bryan Lewis, research vice president at Gartner. "Mounting evidence suggests that the semiconductor industry will see negative growth starting in the fourth quarter of 2008, and that this will continue throughout most of 2009."
The impact seen from the most recent third quarter financial results has Gartner lowering growth for 2008 as well. The market research firm now estimates worldwide semiconductor revenue in 2008 to total $279.4 billion, a 2 percent increase from 2007. 
Table 1 shows Gartner's third quarter of 2008 semiconductor forecast compared with our preliminary, top-line semiconductor growth profile. Growth in 2008 and 2009 has been reduced, while growth in 2010 and 2011 has been increased, due to an expected strong rebound after the financial crisis. Gartner expects the next supply-driven downturn to be in 2012, rather than 2011.
