Market research firm, DRAMeXchange has noted that the Japanese disaster led to a panic surge in spot prices for NAND Flash. Japan is home to Toshiba and SanDisk’s JV fab operations dedicated to NAND production. However, DRAMeXchange noted that global NAND Flash bit supply by would only be reduced by less than 4% in 2Q11.
Damage, mainly due to wafers in progress may reduce below 10% of the total Toshiba/SanDisk output in 1H2Q11. DRAMeXchange expects the over-supply gap in 2Q11 may be narrowed by the mixed effects from the earthquake.
DRAMeXchange expects NAND Flash spot price to sharply increase due to the uncertainty in supply, right after the earthquake but should the infrastructure issues be solved in 2Q11, the affected NAND Flash supply will also be improved.
With the traditional slow sales season in mid-2Q11, overall prices are expected fall.