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DRAM industry revenue recovery sighted by iSuppli

09 January 2009 | By Mark Osborne | News > Fab Management

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There may be an end in sight to the crisis hitting DRAM manufacturers, according to new projections from market research firm iSuppli Corp. The production and capital spending cuts announced in late 2008 coupled to further reductions currently under consideration for 2009 are expected to help return revenues to growth, but not before 2010.

The market research firm expects a global DRAM revenue decline of 19.8% in 2008 to US$25.2 billion compared to US$31.5 billion in 2007, which was itself a decline of 7.3% from 2006. The problems of overcapacity will continue in 2009, iSuppli said, though the decline in revenue will be 4% to US$24.1 billion.

Significantly for the DRAM industry, the revenue decline expected in 2009 would mark a three-year sequential decline in revenues.

Revenue growth is forecasted to return in 2010 as capital spending cuts reduce supply growth and ASPs improve to profitable levels. Revenue is expected to rebound to US$27.3 billion in 2010, a 13% rise over 2009.

In 2011, the revenue growth rate will slow to 11.7%, reaching US$30.4 billion and close to levels experienced in 2007.

Of course, the current crisis means that for many DRAM manufacturers, simply surviving the next few months is at the top of the agenda.

Revenue is expected to rebound to US$27.3 billion in 2010, a 13% rise over 2009.

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