The mobile handset market may never be the same again if Nokia's recent
moves gain traction. Indeed, the impact of the largest and most
competitive mobile phone player is already being felt by Texas
Instruments, a long-standing large supplier of semiconductors to Nokia.
Qualcomm probably has itself to blame as Broadcom showed in recent
legal victories, but Nokia must be really miffed with Qualcomm. Watch
out for the impact there in the months to come.
Motorola
knows all too well how to lose massive market share in the blink of an
eye, with no new products available to replace the highly successful
‘fashion phone' known as the RAZR.
What has all this got to do with the semiconductor industry?
Well, Nokia is undertaking a range of new directions that will shake up semiconductor companies both good and bad.
Firstly,
Nokia announced that it is making deep changes to its chipset strategy
by moving away from ASIC designs for its phones. Instead, it will
publish its own standard rather than relying on the chip supplier's
standard. Just think Intel in the chipset field, transfer that to
mobile phones, and put on some ‘Nokia Inside' labels!
Nokia will
also start selling its technology to semiconductor vendors just like
fabless chip vendor Qualcomm, making it almost impossible for chip
vendors to develop their own 3G or future technology.
Think I am mad (as I probably am)?
Then
so is a long-standing friend who is a financial analyst that once
worked for Nokia, covering semiconductor stocks in London and who now
covers comms stocks for an investment bank in Finland. The above
comments are based on his latest notes to investors and he has hit the
nail on the head with many comments regarding Nokia and its competitors
in the last year, so this is getting scary!
According to my
friend, Nokia will have three technology-specific partners. In the
mature GSM world this will be Infineon, which will also be doing the
R&D on Nokia's behalf.
In the field of EDGE technology it partners with Broadcom.
In 3G it is making partnerships with ST Microelectronics, which will result in 200 chip designers from ST working for Nokia.
Nokia
is aiming to capture a significant footprint in future mobile phone
semiconductor technology. It will potentially become one of biggest
licensing IP houses in this field and reap the high margins that are
possible from this business model.
That will affect many
semiconductor suppliers as well as Nokia's rival mobile phone
competitors, in turn impacting the competitors' suppliers.
TI
is a good example of this shift already taking place. It has lost
market share to Qualcomm but is also losing business directly with
Nokia at ST's gain.
TI and Qualcomm have roused a bear from
its hibernation a little too early for comfort. TI's move to fab-lite
and reliance on TSMC for future process technology partnership was one
interruption and Qualcomm's licensing pricing policy another; any more
and the roar from Nokia will be heard even louder!