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KLA-Tencor jobs cuts tell another story

31 March 2009 | By Mark Osborne | Editor's Blog

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KLA-Tencor has downsized its workforce to the lowest level and at the fastest pace in a decade. Innovation, node migrations and yield improvement strategies once meant that KLA-Tencor could ride out the worst of an economic or semiconductor specific downturn better than most equipment suppliers, which were more dependent on production expansions to make sales.

When KLA-Tencor announced a 15% reduction in its global workforce last year, I wasn’t surprised as the current spending cuts are significant with no supplier immune.

In fact, IMHO suppliers have reacted very fast to the changing business environment. Take a look at the graph below, which charts the number of employees at KLA-Tencor from 2000 onwards (SEC Filings for June of each year covered), and the first thing that interests me is how slow the company was in shedding jobs in 2001 and 2002 as we entered what everyone came to regard as the ‘worst downturn in the history of the semiconductor industry.’

It would seem lessons had been learnt from that difficult time and importantly remembered almost a decade later.

Business has boomed at KLA-Tencor as we went through copper, low-k dielectrics, HKMG and the like. Recruitment picked up in 2004 through to 2007 as the company went on an acquisition spree, which included ADE, OnWafer, SensArray and ThermaWave. In total, about 14 companies of various sizes had been acquired since 2000. 

The problem I have with this chart is that it also tells another story and one that I hesitate to bring to a conclusion.

The latest announcement from KLA-Tencor on further job losses (approximately 10%) of the workforce puts the company into new territory. In 2003, KLA-Tencor had finally reached a bottom in workforce reductions, reaching approximately 4,900 employees, down from a peak in 2001 of 6,400.

Taking the 6,000-strong workforce in June, 2008 and deduct the first wave of job cuts with the latest round, gives a possible headcount for 2009 of approximately 4,590.

Immediately, this highlights that KLA-Tencor has downsized its workforce to the lowest level and at the fastest pace in a decade.

Tough times mean tough decisions but this chart could indicate that the times could be a lot tougher than many expected, not just for KLA-Tencor but for all equipment suppliers.

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Reader comments

Editor response: First of all, apologies for not posting your latest response sooner, we have been extremely busy here these last few weeks. I do agree that in past downturns talent goes on to launch start-ups and I see no reason that we don’t see that this time around. However, the customer base is shrinking and the obstacles to gaining both initial sales and future orders get harder for start-ups in each cycle. The last few cycles have seen more start-ups acquired than go on to become major OEM’s. Fewer are going for an IPO and that could be the reason for VC’s to get out early but be rewarded less. That could lead to few start-ups getting initial funding and so fewer actually make it to the starting blogs.
By Mark Osborne on 24 April 2009
Mark, thanks for your response. What you've said makes perfect sense, and I really can't argue against it. However, a couple trends make me somewhat doubt your admittedly more probable scenario. With many cash-strapped fabs now fixing their own equipment and with third-party service companies springing up, supplying spare parts and service engineers is no longer going to be a reliable income source past this recession. Selling new equipment then becomes the sole income stream, but with enormous layoffs and budget cuts amongst the big OEMs, I have to wonder where the innovative new equipment will come from. Start-ups seem the most likely source: There's now a vast talent pool that's been handed pink slips, and I think a few of these guys are going to carve a niche that the big guys were too conservative to exploit. I'll admit I'm being a tad Pollyannaish, but I have my doubts that this recession will be the startup poison that you make it out to be.
By M.E. on 13 April 2009
Editor's response: I would expect start-ups and micro-caps to suffer more with many folding or forced to trim operations to a skeleton staff level. With extremely limited capital spending this year I would expect purchases to go to ‘safe’ bets not ‘risky’ start-ups and micro-caps. Ultra conservative spending patterns have resumed and that’s the biggest challenge to small players. That would mean a shake-out is in play if conditions do not get much better in 2010. Most at risk companies are looking at surviving the next 12-months but what if that survival mode (little cash) has to be extended to 18 or 24-months. Then we have the problem of staffing levels and the right talent in place that could set recovery times back for suppliers even though the chip manufacturers are back in the black. Historically, OEMs business recovers 9-12 months after the IC manufacturers so this would tell me that companies will have to survive on significantly lower revenues for at least the next 2-years at best.
By Mark Osborne on 10 April 2009
I agree that things will look very different. Recovery will be preceded by a wave of bankruptcies and consolidation. Equipment supplier will be smaller, much smaller. I do not believe there is much room for startups, not on the semi equipment supply side at least. There will be consolidation among foundries, the last ditch survival game of the remaining IDMs is to try to go fabless. Some will succeed, most will not. Foundries will be needed, but only a handful are needed since they will be operating very large Fabs. (>250k WSPMs) Smaller Fabs will be closed all over the world, a slow but sure death. The aftermath will be configured by a few very large state of the art fabs running near full capacity all the time. Razor thin operating margins everywhere. System design houses should thrive, after all, the big margins will be there. Fabless companies will also thrive. Fabs, what Fabs? ….Fabs will live a very tough life. The end of Moore's law does not mean the end of innovation in electronics; it means an era where innovation happens in architectures, packaging, power management and systems. Silicon memories should finally bottom to a level, further shrinking will raise costs, it will not happen. A search for new solid state storage technologies will really intensify. MPUs will become stagnant as components; systems is the way of the future, thus MPUs will become more complex modules. It is not a bad future; it is exciting for those that love uncertainty. Entrepreneurs!
By Adolfo Gutierrez on 04 April 2009
I look at this chart and think "Start-ups are going to eat the big equipment companies' lunch." And they probably won't be able to buy their new rivals once the recovery begins. I get the feeling that things are going to look a lot different in this industry at the other end of the tunnel. What do you think?
By M.E. on 02 April 2009

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