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Itâ??s all up from here, according to IC Insights
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In a rather excited email, Bill McClean at IC Insights has called a bottom to the current semiconductor cycle and without actually using the word, hailed the next up-cycle for an industry desperate for good rather than bad news.
According to McClean, the April WSTS figures just released hide the fact that worldwide IC unit sales were up 35% when you compare April 2009 to January 2009 figures, and that, should the May and June results follow the normal monthly pattern, 2Q09/1Q09 IC sales would be up 16%-20%. Coupled to 2Q09/1Q09 IC unit volume sales that should grow by at least 20%, things are looking up and a recovery is now taking place.
McClean noted that due to the way the WSTS three-month rolling average figures work, the true recovery was hidden.
This all means that the industry has burnt through the inventory and is now switching back to making the products as unit sales recover. Such was the reduction in production that McClean believes the restocking should continue well into the third quarter.
However, should we believe him that the worst is over and a recovery is actually taking place?
McClean has actually made a name for himself over the years for actually calling the next upturn, so I see no reason to doubt him this time round.