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Is this the roots of recovery showing in IC ASPs?

12 March 2009 | By Mark Osborne | Editor's Blog

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Bill McClean over at IC Insights is making hints that a recovery could be in the making for the beleaguered semiconductor industry, as the trend in falling IC ASPs seems to be on the cusp of changing course.

He noted that:

  • Analog ASP up 10% compared to Dec '08, the highest since April '07.
  • MPU ASP up 23% compared to December '08, the highest since September '08.
  • MCU ASP up 5% compared to December '08, the highest since June '08.
  • 8-bit MCU ASP up 22% compared to December '08, the highest ASP in over two years.
  • 32-bit MCU ASP up 9% from 4Q08 average, the highest since April '08.
  • Logic ASP up only 2% compared to December '08, but first time above $2.00 in over two years.
  • DRAM ASP up 5% compared to December '08, which was lowest point for DRAM ASP in over two years.
  • Total Flash ASP up 11% compared to Dec ‘08, the highest since Jun ‘08.
  • NAND Flash ASP up 17% compared to Dec ’08, the highest since in Jun ‘08.
  • Total IC ASP up 4% compared to Dec ’08, the highest four-week month ASP since Nov ’07!

But cautioned that:

‘It is too early to say with certainty if IC ASPs have reached their low points, but IC Insights firmly believes that IC ASPs will rebound throughout 2009 and into 2010.’

The closure of some 200mm fabs, many in the memory sector but not exclusive to the sector, coupled to still decent fab utilization in 300mm facilities but little capital spending planned in 2009 could see inventory levels much lower. Therefore, if this tightening of supply kept going, it could produce a recovery of sorts.

Here’s hoping.

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