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It’s not the debate over the 450mm wafer transition that is boring me, rather the fact that the majority of recent stories written concerning the larger wafer size have focused on asking a range of companies about it - companies that quite simply are not going to be at the forefront of the move. In fact, many will probably never make the move! 

So why ask these companies what they think of 450mm?

A case in point is an interview with Chartered Semiconductor’s CEO, Song-Hwee Chia over at DigiTimes .

All he could really say was the obvious: that it’s too early to decide, as there are no tools available. What he obviously didn’t say was that the cost is almost completely out of his reach now and in the future unless the company can reach full capacity at its first 300mm fab, build and fill another and keep them at high utilization rates to generate the cash to put down a deposit.

When could that be?

My guess is another 10 years or even more, based on its ability to attract demand at its first 300mm fab. Granted, the second fab could ramp significantly faster than the first if things go well etc… but history is telling me something else.

I remember hearing NXP (then Philips) tell the press that it would one day build a 300mm fab. We identified that this would be built in Singapore but it never happened, much like Freescale, and as both have an asset-lite plan, they never will.

Only a few companies will be able to be early adopters of the next wafer size. We already know who those will be (Intel, TSMC, Toshiba and Samsung). Should any others fail to make the move within 4 years of these, then the likelihood of them ever migrating reduces significantly, unless in a JV.

The press needs to stop asking these questions of executives from companies that obviously cannot afford the wafer transition and focus on those that can. Any doubts coming from those companies about the move is actually news and important to the industry as a whole.

Asking those that can’t afford the migration actually tells us nothing new and misses the point completely.