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Aixtron AG presented 3Q05 financials today, which
highlighted several trends underlying the problems many European semiconductor
equipment companies have encountered this year and are likely to continue for
some time.
The backdrop is poor demand for capital equipment as chip
manufacturers have been highly selective in purchases all year as capacity
utilisation figures have only recently started to improve. The 3Q05 results of
companies such as Aixtron, ASMI and ASML highlight that sales have probably
reached the lowest point in the current cycle with future booking looking
slightly better in the next two quarters at best.
However, the problem we have noticed is more to do with
companies attempting to diversify revenues via acquisitions and the profitable
rollout of new technologies to meet emerging markets.
Starting with Aixtron, the company realised last year that
its dependence on the compound semiconductor market for its revenues would only
result in continued cyclical periods of financial stress. That market has seen
excellent growth over the last 10 years but has gone through several rounds of
consolidation and a shift to low cost regions such as Taiwan. Pricing pressures
have permeated down the food chain to the equipment suppliers. Now the compound
industry is taking a breather from capacity expansions and new high-volume
product introductions as existing markets have become saturated.
No wonder then that Aixtron sought to expand into the mainstream
bulk CMOS markets both with its own new tool offerings as well as boosting
inertia with the acquisition of Genus Inc.
The problem is that ALD technology has only gained traction
in niche aspects of the silicon world as well as servicing a small disk drive
market for the technology. Genus had been successful in developing the market,
yet that market had only just kept the company afloat. Genus had been expecting
like many others to see the high volume ALD applications come on stream much
sooner than was the reality, which we believe played a key part in the company
seeking a bail-out.
The exact node migration to high k dielectrics is still
being debated but all this has meant is that its implementation has been pushed
back a node. This has now happened twice for that application, which is at
least a four-year push back. That may be manageable for the likes of Applied
Materials, but not for likes of a Genus nor for that matter an Aixtron.
The company reiterated much of what it had said in the 2Q05 conference
call but sales and earnings have tracked downwards since then. The Genus
acquisition isn't a dead donkey, rather it is contributing revenues quarter on
quarter (9.2 million Euros in 3Q05), but nothing different than Genus did when
it was a separate company. Unfortunately due to the lacklustre compound
equipment sales this year, Genus is contributing to the company's cash burn
increase, both on an operational and R&D basis.
Aixtron's R&D expenditure as a percentage of sales hit
24 percent in the current reported quarter, and was cited by executives as
contributed to Genus. It's a classic position companies get themselves in and
there is no known short-term solution.
In Aixtron's situation management are putting a brave face
on things by highlighting on a short-term basis that things are not looking
good as well as taking action to reduce cash burn via job cuts (44 or 7% of the
workforce) a job freeze and factory shut-downs in poor utilisation periods. Not
surprisingly certain R&D projects will be put on hold. Other than getting
radical, what could the company do?
Trikon Technologies is in the same rock and a
hard place as Aixtron. The company has technology that has shown promise for
porous low k deposition but ultra-low k materials have consistently been pushed
out by leading chip manufacturers. Trikon's legacy business brings in a smaller
and smaller amount of cash, while other market penetration activities will
naturally take time to get to a positive ROI. Unfortunately for Trikon, that
time recently ran out and is now going through the motions of being acquired by
Aviza Technologies. Interestingly, Trikon brought in Bill Elder, CEO of Genus
as a consultant to help determine its future course of action!
Ironically, Trikon also produced its quarterly financial
results today and continues to lose money. Although the operating loss declined
on improved sales, the company also reduced R&D expenditures by 14 percent
in the quarter and 18 percent from the same time last year.
Though we have commented about small cap companies, larger
European equipment suppliers such as ASM International seem to be in the same
position. ASMI reported results last week and during the conference call
highlighted the challenges of returning its FEOL division back to
profitability.
The company has invested in technology acquisitions such as
NuTool and Genitech in recent years as well as develop in-house technologies
such as its Levitor RTP tool. Such developments were seen by the company as
essential to the growth of the company as its legacy 200mm tools, especially
vertical furnaces was a declining market with the migration to 300mm wafers and
more single wafer RTP annealing steps.
However, ASMI noted last week that the new product divisions
that make up RTP, ALD and copper deposition/CMP have yet to turn a profit. In
the case of the NuTool acquisition, management stated that cash burn rate for
that technology had become "totally unacceptable," prompting management to take
a hard look at its options!
Customer acceptance of the "disruptive" technology would
seem to have stalled while the "unique" and some might say "quirky" Levitor
technology has taken several years to get to the position where tool evaluation
work is now starting to look promising, according to the company. Only the ALD
tools have seen real unit sales, but even here as noted with the problems
experienced by Genus, the big markets remain elusive. According to ASMI, the
company has sold 56 ALD units, which isn't bad, but nothing too impressive when
that technology has been marketed for over 8 years!
Aixtron, may take some comfort from the fact that they are
not alone in Europe facing these challenges, being caught between a rock and
hard place can be very lonely. Like the others they will be working hard not to
be left behind come the next upturn.
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