This comes on the back of 2004 figures that saw wafer shipments grow 23 percent over 2003, which means wafer shipments are expected to grow for the fourth year in a row. The wafer shipment consensus figures for 2005 would seem to mirror IC growth figures which are anything between flat to up 6 percent for the year.

However, 2004 consensus report, issued the same month last year, projected wafer shipments would grow to 6,596 million square inches in 2005, or around a 5 percent growth rate year on year. The new report shows a declining level of optimism compared to this time last year with a drop in projections by around 3 percent.

When stacking last years forecast against this years, it becomes apparent that 2004 expectations for the forthcoming year (2005) were much higher than what looks like being achieved. The worrying aspect though is the fact that 2006 and 2007 projections for both reports are very close. This means that the growth over the next two years is actually going to be steeper than that projected in 2004, now that 2005 projections are 3 percent down on last years figures.

No commentary was given in the SEMI press release about this difference or importantly what impact the steeper growth would have, considering the very tight supply of silicon that SEMI has highlighted this year as demand from the solar panel industry is growing fast. 300mm fabs are also putting pressure on the larger substrate supply as 300mm wafers have grown from 15 percent of square inches in 2005 to a projected 25 percent in 2006.