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We may be entering a new phase of rational analysis of the
semiconductor industry in China, compared to the long running wave of hype and
more hype. It should be noted that I have not been one of those journalist
caught up in having to quote company executives pumping up how wonderful
business will be in China over the last couple of years.
I remember at SEMICON West three years ago, US executive after
executive hyping up the expected business from a string of start up
foundries and IDM's building fabs in China. The reality has come
nowhere near the hype, except if your business is concerned with used
150 and 200mm equipment!
We ran a story last month about an iSuppli report that revealed the
fab by fab situation in China, which was the first report we had seen
that contradicts reports from SEMI that appeared at this years SEMICON
West event.
A story posted yesterday at EETimes website by Dylan McGrath,
highlights some US company executives now prepared to down-play China.
According to the story the Chinese fabless community had revenues that
was still below $1 billion last year, which is less than many top
fabless companies revenues on their own.
The story also highlighted that many Chinese fabless companies are
under-funded and are yet to embrace designs below 180nm, which was also
noted in the isuppli report. Even SMIC was criticised for not having a
reliable 130nm process by US based fabless company CEO.
Of course we are actually seeing continued growth in China but
perhaps now we are seeing the reality of it without the filtered
glasses.
The EETimes story can seen here,
www.eetimes.com
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