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SEMI released its report of the 2007 worldwide semiconductor equipment market revenue results last week, while its numbers for the materials side of the business hit the wires earlier today.
Both sectors showed growth, with the tool side hitting a second-best-ever $42.77 billion last year (an increase of 6% vs. 2006) and the materials segment's total sales rising to $42.39 billion (a 13.5% uptick vs. 2006). For both sectors, the wafer-fab portions were the healthiest, with process equipment going up 11% to $31.95 billion ($34.87 billion, if the miscellaneous front-end photomask and wafermaking gear is included) and fab materials increasing to $25 billion, a 17% pop from the previous year. Since both reports have been released, what follows represents a gander at the "real" semi supplier market--the combination of both tools and materials. When you put the two segments together, the 2007 total climbs to $85.16 billion, almost evenly split between the pair, and the year-to-year percentage increase comes in at 9.4% compared to 2006's total of $77.82 billion. With SEMI forecasting that the materials side will grow another 11% in 2008--to about $47.5 billion--it's likely it will be the alpha sector once this year's results are tabulated, since the equipment community expects low-single-digit growth at best, but could experience a low-double-digit downturn in 2008, pushing south toward (or past) $40 billion. Regionally, the story is--surprise! (not!)--all about Asia, especially when including Japan. (See the table below for the breakdown.) On the tool side, Taiwan blew by Japan in 2007, spending $10.6 billion, a nearly 46% increase vs. 2006, which surpassed Nippon's $9.3 billion. The combined tool/materials numbers reveal the two island nations in a dead heat, with Japan at $18.62 billion and Taiwan at $18.5 billion. Samsung, Hynix, and the rest of South Korea came in third on the equipment side ($7.35 billion), as well as third overall, with $13.79 billion in total expenditures. China was the fastest-growing region on the materials side---rising 37% year-over-year---and second fastest on the tool half (+26%), edging Taiwan for the largest percentage growth crown, 33.8% vs. 31.6%. Europe and North America saw continued erosion of their status as preeminent chip manufacturing areas, with both regions dropping double-digits on the tool side and registering less-than-average growth in the materials sector. Europe's combined markets came in at $6.57 billion in 2007, a 6% decrease vs. 2006 and just barely ahead of China's $6.29 billion. In fact, the European equipment market dropped 18.2% in 2007, a 64 percentage point difference compared to Taiwan's bullish results. North America saw its overall market slip 3.4%, ending up at $12.03 billion, falling behind South Korea to fifth place in the standings. If you roll up all of the Asian numbers (including, for the sake of argument, the rest of world [ROW] results, which mainly comes from Singapore, Malaysia, etc.), $66.56 billion of the $85.16 billion in semiconductor equipment and materials revenues, front- and back-end, was spent in Asia last year. | Region | 2006 | 2007 | Pct. Change | | China | $4.7B | $6.29B | 33.8% | | Europe | 6.99 | 6.57 | --6.0 | | Japan | 17.82 | 18.62 | 4.5 | | South Korea | 11.91 | 13.79 | 15.9 | | No. America | 12.46 | 12.03 | --3.4 | | Taiwan | 14.05 | 18.5 | 31.6 | | ROW | 9.9 | 9.76 | --1.5 | | Total | $77.82B | $85.16B | 9.4% | Combined semi tool and materials markets, by region. (Source: SEMI)
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