The Future Horizons Annual Semiconductor Industry Forecast Seminar (IFS2008) took place yesterday in London, and the overall message was optimistic. 

In a survey of forecasts including those of Gartner Dataquest, VLSI Research, iSuppli and WSTS, among others, the average growth projection for the industry stood at 8.9% - another year of single digit growth but, remarked Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, the year holds potential for a bounce back from the structural problems experienced in 2007.

While a global recession could sound the death knell for the industry, with major CapEx cuts and negative growth figures, the market should be in a position to recover well for a successful 2009. The 10% CapEx cuts already announced to date for 2008 will bode well for 2009’s capacity levels.

Geographically speaking, China, India and Russia accounted for half of the past year’s global growth, counter-balancing the low to moderate growth in other regions.

Future Horizons’ ASP projections for 2008 see weak growth for 1H08 but a strong recovery in 2H08. Overall, if the global economy holds up this year, we should see a fairly encouraging 2008, but if it all comes crashing down around us, so too will the semiconductor industry.

By Síle Mc Mahon