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Flexibly speaking about printed electronics: NanoMarket's Gasman puts up big numbers |
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Jan 23, 2008 at 11:35 AM |
Is the flexible and printed electronics sector really at "a takeoff point"? NanoMarkets' Lawrence Gasman thinks so.
During his capacity and investment forecast delivered at the USDC's Flexible Electronics and Displays conference taking place in Phoenix this week, the industry analyst opined that "we are already in a phase of exponential growth" and that "there are strong incentives for major industries to invest."
Large-area flexible electronics have several demand and supply side drivers, "the pull and push," as Lawrence calls it, with megatrends like aging populations, security concerns, spiraling energy costs, and an insatiable desire for increased productivity all pointing to a lucrative future for certain applications. He listed displays, RFID tags, signage, backplanes, and photovoltaics as the top five dominant opportunities for printed electronics, which he estimates will account for almost 80% of the multibillion-dollar market in 2012.
Since one can't manufacture much of anything without factories and production tools, Lawrence sees a decent-sized bucket of cash waiting for those companies willing to invest in printable electronics equipment and plants. More than $2 billion will be invested in those areas this year, with the number rocketing to a little over $5 billion in 2010 and more than $9 billion in 2012 (the equivalent of three 300-mm fabs or so), according to NanoMarkets' forecast.
Furthermore, while about 250 tools shipped into the PE market last year, the company forecasts 6300 will be absorbed by the sector in 2013. I believe that's what the kids today would call a "sick" growth rate. In terms of printing machines, about 15% are for actual production now (the rest mostly in R&D), but that number will rise to 52% in 2013.
No wonder several large traditional printing companies and process equipment players are looking closely at throwing their hats in the flex/printed/organic electronics ring. Lawrence expects some bigger name venture capitalists to start bankrolling companies in the space, something the fun(d)-money crowd has been wont to do for the most part.
You want even bigger digits? Lawrence predicts that in order to meet escalating demand for flex PE products, the capacity needed in 2011 will hover between 50 and 100 million square meters (that's how flex is measured, since it's coming off the line in sheets or rolls of devices). But the 2013 figure is eye-popping: just two years after closing in on that 100-million-meter mark, the forecast calls for 400 million square meters of available production capacity (80% of which will be dedicated to flex real estate gobbling RFID apps).
Yup, those numbers look pretty exponential to me too. But I'll try and keep my expectations a bit more grounded until all those flex-print factories start to come online and pump out product.
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