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45nm native quad-core internal samples have been fabricated at AMD’s Fab 36 with yields etc… as expected. Customer samples are due out in 2 to 3 weeks and engineering samples soon after, AMD executives said during its fourth quarter conference call.
Does this change our view on AMD’s 45nm volume ramp as we commented late last year? Yes - and no. On the no front, the real volume ramp where 45nm unit production overtakes 65nm unit production doesn’t look any different from the latest update from AMD. Indeed, last year AMD said the 45nm ramp would be mid-year 2008, now it is saying second half of 2008! Our view also hasn’t changed on the fact that Fab 36 is being focused on an aggressive 65nm quad-core volume ramp through the next three quarters, if we also take into account the strong ramp in 4Q07. However, Dirk Mayer said that the 45nm ramp would start in 1H08 and would be shipping for revenue in 2H08. Interestingly, Fab 38 was mentioned but not in any real meaningful context other than an inference that the fab would help in the ramp of 45nm microprocessors! That could mean that some level of ‘volume’ ramp may indeed come in 2008 rather than 2009 as we previously stated, but it is still very, very uncertain! Overall, with some other snippets of less than clear commentary (this is getting to be frequent in the calls) the majority of this year's manufacturing focus is Fab 36, rather than Fab 38, and Chartered Semiconductor. If this proves to be correct then 65nm is the core volume technology coming out of Fab 36, not 45nm. Oh! and Hector still refuses to talk about the asset-lite strategy but said he would be thrilled to do so when the time was right! Not sure whether we should hold our breath until that happens?
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Comment by GUEST on 2008-02-29 09:35:16
"last year AMD said the 45nm ramp would be mid-year 2008, now it is saying second half of 2008!"
Ummm...I believe they said that the ramp will be H1 08, and that volume shipping will be H2 | Comment by GUEST on 2008-01-18 14:09:48
to Guest No.2.
If I try and follow your logic:
1) you should accuse AMD officials to stop dissing AMD because all that Mr Osbourne did was repeat what AMD said.
2) we should stop analysing AMD's execution because it will lead to over-priced CPUs.
Anyway... "the majority of this year's manufacturing focus is Fab 36, rather than Fab 38"...
Not hard to believe considering that a big factor in AMDs road to recovery is maintaining OpEx flat. AMD can't repeat the Q4 feat with 2 Fabs running. Not with the current ASPs/margins that they have. That's your asset smart right there.
roborat:
http://roborat64.blogspot.com/ | Comment by GUEST on 2008-01-18 08:21:49
Isnt it time to stop dissing AMD ?
If it wasnt for AMD intel would still be ridiculously overpriced, which they still are. I'm sorry but i will never support Intel EVER ! | Comment by GUEST on 2008-01-18 08:21:10
If the only major difference between AMD's 65 nm and 45 nm is litho shrink, then the transition could be straightforward. If a new module is involved, such as high-k, then obviously it will be not so straightforward. |
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January 2008 
