|
SEMI mISSives 2008: Quickly sorting out mixed bag of chip, tool, materials forecasts |
|
|
|
Jan 14, 2008 at 03:48 PM |
The new year looks pretty good for the semiconductor industry, pretty sketchy for the equipment sector, and pretty solid for the materials folks, if the new forecasts from some of the usual research-analyst suspects hold true.
There's even a semblance of consensus among the prognosticators that a mixed bag of market conditions is in store.
Gartner Dataquest, IC Insights, Semico, and VLSI Research all see chipmakers experiencing decent revenue increases in 2008, ranging from a bullish 12% (Semico) to a more sober number of 6.2% (Dataquest). IC Insights' forecast comes in lower than Semico's at 9%, while VLSI's trends closer to Dataquest's, at 7.5%. All agree that capital utilization rates in the fabs are healthier than they've been and IC inventories are under control.
The equipment folks, one of SEMI's main constituencies, may have to batten down the hatches, with lower capital expenditures expected all around. Dataquest (oh ye purveyors of cautious pessimism!) expect a drop of 13.2% in overall capital expenditures, with overall equipment spending decreasing 9.9%. If the firm's worst-case scenario comes to pass, tool spending could decrease at least 17%. VLSI is more optimistic in its tool-sector forecast, though still in negative-growth country, expecting a 2.8% hit in that area. But 2009 should mark a return to positive growth for the toolmakers.
During the lunchtime press conference, Dataquest's Dean Freeman and VLSI's Aida Jebens both pointed to the lithography sector as one that should perform better than the rest of the equipment pack, with Aida also underscoring the expected double-digit performance by the spares and services segment. Farther down the downside, Dean noted that memory-dependent tool segments such as wet process, oxidation/diffusion, and to a lesser extent, PVD, would take bigger-than-average hits this year. In terms of a geographical breakdown, Dean said that among the four main chipmaking regions, only Japan would not feel the pain of a drop in capex, essentially coming in flat in terms of 2008 prospects.
Another potential bright spot? Companies that produce production tools for the display manufacturers may have better prospects, however, as VLSI sees a 18.9% positive pop in that realm this year.
Wafer-fab materials' revenues should grow 12.4% in 2008, according to SEMI's Dan Tracy. The biggest chunk of that market is, as always, the silicon wafer sector, which accounts for more than half of the $28.4 billion total materials forecast for the year. Part of the growth includes a huge pop in 300-mm wafer usage, accounting for 38-40% of the total in 2007 and likely surpassing 200-mm shipments in 2008. Other strong market segments include gases and CMP consumables, although all materials segments---from wet chemicals to photomasks to sputter targets---are expected to benefit from the healthy conditions. Dan also said that the packaging materials market should grow about 9% to around $18.4 billion.
As for the macroeconomic outlook, Global Insights' Nariman Behravesh told the ISS attendees that he feels that the odds of a mild US recession (AKA "the 'R' word") in 2008 have risen to about 50:50, but that such a relatively benign R won't drag down the high-tech sector or the rest of the world's economies. His glass-half-full pronouncement is small consolation for the equipment companies that face, at best, an uncertain and possibly rocky new year.
|
|
