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Monday tidbits: Mixing up the numbers from SIA, Applied Materials, and SEMI |
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Nov 19, 2007 at 08:11 AM |
Last week saw an optimistic forecast from the Semiconductor Industry Association, a mixed-bag fiscal year-end financial report from equipment big dog Applied Materials, and continued weak book-to-bill numbers from SEMI.
Some random comparisons, calculations, and observations provide a few interesting tidbits to nosh on with your Monday morning coffee.
First, how did AMAT's annual revenues stack up against SIA's annual global chip-sales forecast for 2007? Of course, the top toolie's fiscal year ends in October and includes intake from the fab solutions, display, and "adjacent technologies" (AKA mostly solar) groups, while SIA's numbers project to December 31. But for the sake of comparison, let's take a look: The industry group predicts $257 billion in sales this year, while Applied hit a record $9.735 billion, which equals about 3.7% of the SIA total.
How does this stack up to 2006? SIA reported that the chippies of the world posted sales of $247.7 billion. And what were AMAT's revenues last year? Some $9.17 billion, which also amounts to 3.7% of the total. (Note that Applied's total revenues for 2006 would have landed them the number-seven slot on IC Insights' ranking of top semi manufacturers in 2006, just ahead of Hynix and behind TSMC.)
How do SEMI's latest quarterly book-to-bill figures compare to AMAT's new orders and revenues for its just-competed 4Q07? SEMI's b-t-b for the August-October period came in at a turgid 0.81, while Applied's comparable time-frame numbers put it at a subpar ratio of 0.93. The equipment giant's revenues were about 50% of the overall billings number cited by SEMI, while AMAT's new orders calculate to about 57% of the trade group's bookings sum for the same three months. AMAT's book/orders to SEMI's bill number hits 0.47.
Applied boss Mike Splinter's cautionary comments about recent and looming cuts in semiconductor capital expenditures don't bode well for an improved b-t-b outlook in the first half of 2008, but there is a bright spot: the company's stellar growth in its adjacent technologies segment, which includes photovoltaic tool sales. The group's new orders for FY07 registered at $245 million, while its net sales hit $165 million---a b-t-b ratio of 1.48. For 4Q07, the numbers were $98 million and $62 million---which amounts to a preposterous b-t-b of 1.58. The 4Q new orders figure of nearly a cool hundred million represents 40% of the annual take.
Although AMAT's "adjacents" have yet to achieve an operating profit (FY07 ended with a $89 million loss, 4Q with $30 million in the red), that won't hold for long. But it's doubtful that the unit's improving fortunes and likely first profits will fully counterbalance the toll of as much as a 15% hit on industry capex posited by Splinter.
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