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The prompt here is several stories expanding on the number
of 200mm wafers TSMC is reported to be contracted to supply Spansion, that all
centre on TSMC's fab 6.
The best of the bunch stories suggest that Spansion, within
the first year of its just announced contract with TSMC, will benefit from
180,000 wafers TSMC has available! The fact that this is still being targeted
for TSMC's most advanced and last built 200mm fab, starts to paint a picture
that indeed Fab 6, "IS" the fab of choice!
But if this turns out to be the truth, it opens a whole new
can of worms for both parties?
Let me divulge? Our impression, only a day or two ago was
that Fab 6 was still a highly utilised, leading edge 200mm fab. It was actually
designed and built as TSMC's first 300mm fab but due to the amazing demand for
chips generated by the dot com boom, was fitted out with 200mm/300mm bridge
tools instead.
TSMC, always had the intention to one-day retro-fit the fab
to 300mm when the time was right! That
time may have come and gone—based on the Spansion & TSMC NOR Flash
contract. All news report fingers, are pointing at Fab 6 becoming a major
foundry outlet for Spansion's need to add capacity to both meet demand and
retain market share before the expected and fully publicised IPO.
Yet with 15,000wspm as a minimum being touted as part of the
foundry deal, several questions about the real intentions of both Spansion
& TSMC have come to the surface!
The first of these relates to the actual utilisation figures
of Fab 6. Long been regarded as a production home to Altera and Nvidia for
mainstream high volume product production—is this about to change?
Could Fab 6 produce 15,000 to 20,000wspm just for Spansion,
from a fab that has previously been more than dedicated to these two major
fabless customers?
Could Altera and/or Nvidia finally be pushing next
generation products on to 300mm wafers at a time that its mainstream products
have peaked, base on 200mm wafers?
If so, this would easily explain TSMC's engagement with
Spansion to backfill Fab 6 with NOR Flash production!
However the brain cells don't stop thinking at this level!
It has been well publicised that TSMC wants the Taiwanese Government to loosen
constraints on its ability to produce more leading edge chips at its newly
started 200mm fab in mainland China. TSMC simply wants to have the ability to
compete with the likes of SMIC on a more level playing field in SMIC's own
backyard.
My point here is that Hynix and STM are currently building a
200/300mm fab in China to produce Flash & DRAM chips respectfully for
internal China demand. Hynix is currently the number one supplier of DRAM in
China and wants to keep it that way! ST, wants to gain more market share in the
Flash market overall, and sees China as the best way to achieve that goal!
Spansion, also sees the Chinese mobile phone market as its
best bet in market share gains, whether pre IPO or post IPO, its all the same
to them!
TSMC gives Spansion a fast track production route to China,
though that's exactly NOT what is obviously being said! It should NOT NOW be
very strange to have an announcement from TSMC, via the Taiwanese Government
that TSMC has met the criteria to NOW go ahead with "more advanced" processes than
those originally authorised, (250nm)
Spansion would then have direct, tax exempt access on a par,
or better than those of a competitor—to a major market—but also without the fab
construction delay! Put another way—it negates the expense of building its own
fab in China and the 18-month delay in generating revenue at the discounted
prices one of its competitors would naturally have!
Everything seems to be in motion, other than the
confirmation that that's exactly what's going on!
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