Comment by GUEST on 2007-12-18 10:31:09
I think the immersion orders will saturate somewhere around 2009-2010. Especially if Canon enters (which it was announced they will). |
Comment by GUEST on 2007-11-12 09:41:44
A fab costs ~ $3 billion now. Therefore the projected market is like 5 fabs in 5 years. Money like that can't even move that fast. |
Comment by GUEST on 2007-11-10 20:01:11
As inflated as these numbers might well be, I would guess that they include a whole lot more than just litho tools. In addition to the exposure tools, I'm sure this would include things like masks, mask writers, pellicles, resists, ARCs, probably DFM software and tools, and perhaps even etch tools. The list could go on and on.
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Comment by julian1959 on 2007-11-09 13:59:26
I also find the numbers to be a bit exaggerated, but what do I know? How many customers will there be for EUV (if it works) - 5 or 6?? Maybe they're banking on the scan times to be so slow that you'll have to buy 100 tools to equal the throughput of 10 of today's Optical tools. The Brion play is almost a hedge in that Brion will play into the extensions of optical with immersion. I believe as most of you know that Intel is the major driving force behind EUV. The game plan is the same as the 450mm drive by Intel so it can finally squash AMD. The others are Samsung and TSMC and maybe Toshiba. If the combination of EUV and 450mm wafers is real you can bet the landscape of the semi industry will be controlled by these few players. Further consolidation will happen and I believe we will see constellations forming, i.e., (Intel-Micron-ST-Apple), (Samsung-AMD-IBM)?? the constellations will be the combinations of the MicroP and memory and maybe an OEM, the rest will be in their own older fabs or will have to go to TSMC for anything advanced. The biggest losers will be the infrastructure guys, especially Capital Equipment. If you're not the number one player in the area of expertise you will die a slow death. |
Comment by GUEST on 2007-11-03 13:12:35
The 14.5 billion figure seems inflated. Even taking 20 50-million dollar tool orders, that is only one billion dollars. So it is expecting about 300 tools over the next five years, or roughly 60 per year. I doubt that many can be made to order, even with two vendors.
The thing about double patterning is that it helps companies RE-USE their existing tools, so avoiding need to do disruptive fab expansions. |
Lithography 
ASML has said that it believes the semiconductor lithography market could reach approximately $14.5 billion by 2012 with it taking a 50 percent share with revenues close to $7.2 billion by that year. The projection was made at an investor conference in London, England. 
