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In its weekly newsletter to clients, the market research
firm isuppli highlighted that its previous forecast of declining IC inventories
for the 2Q05 period had proved wrong.
The research firm had previously stated that inventory would
fall to around $500 million US dollars by the end of the second quarter,
however it was alarmed that the figure had come in at $716 million US dollars.
Although there was an actual decline quarter on quarter of
8.2 percent the slow down in the rate of inventory sell-off was due primarily
to the continued chip pricing pressures that have seen ASP's remain low. DRAM
prices have also fallen considerably in the last two quarters, which is also
dragging down overall sales growth rates for the industry this year.
Days of Inventory are flat, to slightly up, according to
isuppli, with the vast majority of inventory being held by the chip
manufacturers themselves. Only a few months ago, Steve Appleton, Micon's head
honcho told a group of financial analysts in London that the company would
stock-pile DRAM during a period of poor prices and only start selling the
excess when prices improved.
Xilinx, for example has been suffering from high DOI since
last year and has reduced inventory quarter on quarter this year but only by
days, rather than weeks. We believe most of the reductions achieved have been
at the expense of foundry partners such as UMC, which has lagged its main rival
TSMC in the capacity utilisation and 300mm wafer-starts stakes in the last
couple of quarters.
However, isuppli seems to think that a second half increase
in IC demand, especially for memory products will see inventory levels continue
to decline in 2005 but the market research firm cautioned that inventory levels
within the supply-chain would not return to preferred levels until mid-2006.
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