|
Musings from Half Moon Bay: ISS forecasters predict slower growth |
|
|
|
Jan 08, 2007 at 02:42 PM |
The market prognosticators have issued their forecasts at the annual SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium under way here in Half Moon Bay, CA.
At a press luncheon/Webcast, principals from Gartner Dataquest, IC Insights, Semico, and VLSI Research rolled out their latest numbers for the new year. The overall consensus shows a slowing growth rate in global IC revenues, and a flattening of capital expenditures and equipment spending. Here's the breakdown. measured by year-to-year percentage growth:
ICs
COMPANY
|
2006
|
2007
|
Gartner Dataquest
|
10.4%
|
9.2%
|
IC Insights
|
10%
|
7%
|
Semico
|
9.8%
|
7%
|
VLSI Research
|
8.5%
|
4.6%
|
Capital Expenditures
COMPANY
|
2006
|
2007
|
Gartner Dataquest
|
18.8%
|
1.0%
|
IC Insights
|
14%
|
5%
|
Semico
|
15%
|
--4%
|
VLSI Research (*tool spending)
|
22.8%
|
3.2%
|
The forecasters also agree, more or less, that capacity utilization rates will soften a bit in the first part of 2007, to below 90%, but should increase to more than 90% in the second or third quarter. They also concurred that average selling prices (ASPs) for chips will continue downward this year, but more in the low-single-digit range compared to the mid- or high-single digits seen in 2006. Despite an overall flattening in wafer fab tool spending, Klaus Rinnen of Gartner Dataquest singled out the advanced lithography, process control, medium- current implant, APCVD, and SACVD segments as having healthier-than-average growth prospects this year, with VLSI's Risto Puhakka adding the design for manufacturability/manufacturing (DFM) space to that list.
Although not as inspiring as Half Moon Bay's stunning blue-Pacific coastline view, the forecasts do provide the assembled muckedy-mucks at ISS a mildly uplifting economic panorama for the year ahead.
|
Blogs 
