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View from the Valley of the Sun: "Flex" conference opens amid heady market assumptions, er, forecast |
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Feb 06, 2007 at 02:51 PM |
Nothing like presenting a market forecast projection with a heavy load of underlying assumptions and a host of categories classified as "unknown." The collective burden of uncertainty didn't stop Barry Young of DisplaySearch from presenting two cases for technology roadmaps and revenue scenarios at today's opening session of the Flexible Displays and Microelectronics Conference (nicknamed "Flex") in the shadow of Squaw Peak north of Phoenix.
His first case assumed a bit slower development roadmap in areas such as flexible organic TFT technologies.
He said the overall market should hit $82 million by 2008, but could jump to more than $1.9 billion in 2015. The digital signage, eBook, main display, and smart card product segments should lead the way. His second case assumed more rapid technology development, with the total market number bumping up to around $2.5 billion. When asked what it would take to push the market to $5 billion by '15, he said that flexible backplane technology would have to "improve tremendously."
Young suggested that by looking at applications not taken (over) by the big TFT LCD players, one can find plenty of opportunities for flexible displays. But he also warned the 300+ attendees to keep it all in perspective, since "the display industry has always been an industry that has eaten up technology and spit it out."
At least a flexible display is chewier than a rigid glass substrate.
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