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Consumers don't know what they want...yet: More reflections on Flexible Displays and Electronics con |
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Jun 25, 2007 at 02:09 PM |
Sometimes consumers don't know what they want...yet.
The Silicon Era is full of things that consumers can't get enough of---personal computers, flat-panel displays, handheld gizmos, gaming devices---that once were barely a glint in the buyer's eye or something relegated to the imaginative realm of science fiction, not the acquisitive impulses of retail therapy.
Same goes for the Flexible "Electronics Everywhere" Era now dawning: What will catch the consumer's fancy when the product and apps parade starts in earnest?
When ID Tech Ex's Dan Lawrence talked about market opportunities for flexible displays during his presentation at the Intertech Pira conference last week, he alluded to this phenomenon and its effect on forecasting growth in new markets that don't exist yet. He noted that printed electronics will influence several huge global industries---electronics, packaging, chemicals, plastics, printing---that together account for trillions of dollars in sales. He sees no reason why flexible/printed technologies can't get a significant piece of those various pies. Although some technologies are farther along than others---such as organic LEDs, RFID, smart-card packaging---other applications have yet to manifest themselves.
Lawrence's presentation was good stuff, thought-provoking at times, overall a nice update on certain sectors (the active-matrix OLED fab ramp table and production value-chain chart were quite intriguing). But one comment he made prompted a skeptical frown and figurative scratch of the head: "Printed electronics will be much bigger than the silicon chip market."
Yes, I agree with him that PE will "skyrocket as more becomes possible," but that day is decades away. The chart he showed outlined supposed growth curves for the semiconductor and PE markets, with the PE numbers by 2010 about half way to the $25 billion Euro mark. SIA just adjusted its own forecasts for the chip market in 2010, shrinking their estimate to a mere $306 billion. At this stage, it's potential vs. reality.
Without getting into Euro/dollar conversion, let's look at this in round figures. If the semi market were to flatten out from 2010 on, Lawrence's PE curve, with all of its exponential, supercharged growth, would not hit the $300 billion mark until sometime around 2030. But the mainstream chip market won't stand still. If you throw in related sectors such as compound semi and MEMS, let alone the rigid flat-panel display segment, the numbers jump even higher. And what of true, integrated systems-level devices that meld the best of silicon and flex---how will they be counted in the market stats?
Perhaps Dan's breathless assertion that PE will surpass silicon will be proven correct in 2050, maybe a bit earlier (or later). But let's not get ahead of ourselves: The markets for flexible/printed-enabled gizmos have a very, very long road to hoe to pass the spawn of the mighty microchip.
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