|
SIA forecasts strong sales, but was anyone watching the Webcast? |
|
|
|
Nov 16, 2006 at 09:30 AM |
I woke up a little early this morning to catch the live version of the Semiconductor Industry Assn.
Webcast, produced by my colleagues at Semiconductor International. The outlook, according to SIA honcho George Scalise, is very upbeat for the next few years. Demand remains strong, inventories are well managed, and manufacturing capacity utilization rates appear to be in balance.
The main market-demand driver continues to be consumer electronics, such as cellphone and other handsets, MP3 players, digital cameras, and digital TVs. As Scalise pointed out, higher-end consumer products contain a larger percentage of chip content, including a significant amount of advanced devices.
The main regional market is, surprise!, Asia-Pacific, which should come close to capturing half of the world's chip sales by 2009. One interesting factoid mentioned by Scalise is that China and India represent a quarter of global cellphone subscriptions
Global chip sales will climb 9.4% this year, hit 10% or so for 2007 and 2008, and soften to just under 6% in 2009. The compound growth rate over the four years should hover just above 9%. Scalise pointed to 2008 as the year when the industry's sales will climb over the epochal $300-billion mark. MOS logic chips represent the largest sales sector, with DRAM and DSP ICs expected to grow the fastest over the period.
Capital spending should grow 19% this year, representing about 23% of total sales---which is close to the accepted equilibrium stats of 20-22%, according to Scalise. Spending in the Asia-Pacific region should reach 46%, with the U.S. region following at 29%. He said that capacity utilization is in the low 90s, but could hit 95% by year's end, with 300-mm production representing about 23% of the total.
Scalise also touched on some of his favorite public policy talking points: the need to increase U.S. federal government support of basic research, improve math and science education, make the R&D tax credit permanent, and increase the number of visas for skilled foreign workers. Scalise noted that all of these positions have bipartisan support in Washington.
After the Webcast concluded, there was a question-and-answer period. The only query came from SI managing editor Aaron Hand, making me wonder just how many people were really tuned in. Perhaps Aaron, Pete Singer, or John Bold would like to share those viewer numbers, since the lack of Q&A gave the eerie feeling of a near-empty virtual room.
|
Blogs 
