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Semi consensus forecast in u-turn with capital expenditure for 2005 |
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Feb 04, 2005 at 04:00 PM |
The market for semiconductor manufacturing equipment is expected to
grow 59 percent in 2004 to be the second largest annual level ever
recorded according to the year-end edition of the SEMI Capital
Equipment Consensus Forecast released here today by SEMI at the annual
SEMICON Japan exposition.
The world's leading manufacturers of
semiconductor equipment expect a moderate cyclic decline in the 2005 to
US$33.49 billion.
Survey respondents expect the industry to sell US$35.31 billion of new
chip manufacturing, testing and assembly equipment in 2004. In
2005, the industry is expected to contract 5.1 percent. Industry
revenues are expected to increase slightly in 2006 before rising nearly
15 percent to $39.61 billion in 2007.
"Following a robust growth year in 2004, SEMI members expect a pause in
2005 as semiconductor manufacturers digest the new manufacturing
capacity," said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI."SEMI members
see a slight decline in the overall market next year, followed by a
moderate recovery in 2006 and a return to double digit market expansion
in 2007."
Wafer process equipment, which is largest segment by dollar value, is
expected to decline 3 percent to $23.17 billion in 2005. In the same
period, the"other front end" equipment segment, which consists of mask
and wafer making equipment as well as fab facilities, is projected
decline 5 percent to $2.64 billion. Test equipment, which experienced
growth in excess of 50 percent in 2003 and 2004, will see sales
decrease about 9 percent in 2005 to $5.64 billion. Assembly and
packaging equipment is forecast to decline faster and recover more
quickly with a decline of 14 percent in 2005 and gains of 11 percent
and 25 percent respectively in 2006 and 2007.
The equipment market in Japan, which more than doubled in the period
from 2002 to 2004, will remain the world's largest market for
semiconductor equipment in 2005, though it is projected to decline
about 14 percent to $6.79 billion. Other market regions expected to
decline in 2005 include Taiwan (8 percent), Europe (1 percent), Rest of
World (6 percent) and South Korea (about 1 percent). North America and
China are the only market regions forecast to grow in 2005, albeit
slightly.
The SEMI Year-end Consensus Forecast is based on interviews conducted
between October and November 2004 with companies representing a
majority of the total sales volume for the global semiconductor
equipment industry.
The following survey results are given in terms of market size in
billions of U.S. dollars and percentage growth over the prior year:
The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving averages of
worldwide bookings and billings for North Americanbased semiconductor
equipment manufacturers. Billings and bookings figures are in millions
of U.S. dollars.
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