Key to this rational is that Intel is locked into technology node migrations that make a 300mm fab in China using 90nm technology a waste of time. Johnson noted in a weekly Gartner newsletter that by the time the China fab was operational at the 90nm node, other 300mm fabs would be starting 32nm production. Intel tends to upgrade existing fabs every couple of years so the China fab would be well out of sync with Intel's fabs worldwide.

Johnson also reiterated the ‘fab cluster' mentality that many chip manufacturers have adopted over the last 20 years. The clustering reduces production costs and risks. Intel has not built a fab at a ‘greenfield' site in over 10 years and is unlikely to do this in Northern China, Johnson explained.

The bottom line for Johnson is that landing an Intel fab would be seen as a great coup for China but is basically wishful thinking on their behalf.