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The next phase in NAND flash consumption |
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Mar 07, 2007 at 02:18 PM |
Samsung has delivered on its promise to start the next phase in NAND flash consumption markets with the introduction of its ‘hybrid hard drive' technology that combines NAND flash modules between 128 and 256 megabytes of memory with a 2.5-inch drive.
A key benefit is the faster boot times for Windows-based operating systems and some improvement in notebook battery life. Of course, this is just the beginning, and we should expect higher levels of NAND flash integration over the next 18 months and ultimately, perhaps, an affordable all-solid-state memory offering sometime in the future.
For most NAND producers, the quicker PC/notebook suppliers adopt this technology the better, as MP3 players in particular have not absorbed the capacity being pumped out of fabs for just over a year. There is no sign of any other new applications, yet so much is resting on notebook migration to NAND memory dominance perhaps by 2010 for mid- and high-end notebooks.
However, I remain slightly sceptical that notebooks are going to be the savior. The notebook unit numbers actually pale in significance when you take a look at the 1 billion plus sales of mobile phones last year. Not only that, but the introduction of the Apple iPhone and its expected future companions - not just from Apple - should only reinforce the fact that the mobile space may yet come to rescue NAND long before notebooks.
That said, a significant amount of memory will be required to run notebooks, and so the value is much higher, but that will only gain market acceptance when NAND is almost ‘free.'
Although there is a hint of capacity adjustments being made in respect to NAND at both Samsung and Hynix, it is certainly not industry-wide and I doubt we will see a capacity correction at the scales that is required to offset falling ASPs that could reach 80 percent in 2007 — if some market reports are to be taken at face value.
Having just replaced notebooks, I know all about agonizingly slow booting speeds that were topping close to 10 minutes. Though I don't have a hybrid hard drive, my new notebook gets going very quickly, but that will no doubt deteriorate with time.
Next upgrade should be in three years and might include an upgrade to Vista by then. So perhaps the next NAND consumption wave is upon us but I doubt it will make an instant splash when it hits the beaches. Instead, I expect it to roll over and slowly wash over the sands.
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