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Some financial analysts are now going public with concerns over AMD needing more cash this year as the company is hit with margin pressures and a $2 billion plan on equipment spending.
Off the record, some now doubt that AMD can keep with the current CapEx levels and are expecting the company to cut this by as much as half! The increased use of Chartered Semiconductor is also being touted as a way to increase capacity over CapEx concerns. I don't doubt these concerns, but few, if any, have noted that cash is coming in from the Saxony Government for the conversion of Fab 30. Though not enough of course to fill the fab with equipment, it's basically paying for the conversion and first phase tool install, probably all that's required this year. I also noted Mike Splinter of Applied Materials, during a conference call yesterday, clearly state that he expects both AMD and Intel to meet current CapEx plans this year. This point shouldn't be overlooked as Applied has spent a lot of time with both of these customers, checking on purchase requirements for this year. The vibes picked up over AMD's spending plans indicate at the moment that orders for Fab 36 and Fab 38 are being placed, but also that AMD is getting very tough on prices and contract deals - even delayed payments! That last point is a bit scary and adds to the cash problem rumours, but CapEx overall doesn't seem to be affected. AMD is ramping at Chartered, but feeding demand without spending on its own fabs won't be enough. The reason is that Chartered is not spending enough on Fab 7 to meet that much demand from AMD, not only that but other customers are ramping at Fab 7 this year so wafer slots will be tighter through to at least the second half of the year. If CapEx is cut, we would expect this to happen later in the year rather than now, and if AMD does go back to the market to raise more funds, then CapEx could be saved anyway. Even before the price battle with Intel started and AMD forked out for ATI, it was going to be tough for AMD to fund this high level of CapEx this year. There seems little doubt that it's tougher now but few real signs that CapEx will be cut.
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