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The bottom line destroyed! |
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Jan 30, 2007 at 06:40 PM |
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As promised, Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons spent some time during his first of the year forecast meeting here in London, discussing what when wrong with his 20 percent growth rate projection for 2006, this time last year.
With the industry looking at a 10 percent growth figure for last year, Penn's projections were somewhat ‘left of field.' Average selling prices didn't rebound as he expected and then we had the price war kick-in between Intel and AMD. NAND flash prices falling 60 percent also didn't help. These particular factors hit growth rates by as much as 4 percentage points, commented Penn. The good news is that unit ASPs are now rising and the data shows a nice rising curve trend being established which is in defiance of the Intel/AMD war. His view on this battle was simple and straightforward. It destroys the bottom line. Penn is projecting growth of 12 percent for this year, which once again is on the high side of the majority of the other major forecasting firms. This time he said he is being ‘cautious'! Nothing on the horizon seems to bother Penn much, and he sees inventory corrections sorted over the next few quarters with fab utilization improving in the second half of 2007. Get ready for another good year!
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