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Gartner revises wafer fab equipment spending forecast |
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Jan 08, 2007 at 10:55 AM |
 Gartner has completely revised its semiconductor capital spending forecast through 2011 since its last major revision in October 2006. Front-end equipment spending for 2006 has been revised upwards to reach $32.9 billion US Dollars compared to a previous projection of $32.3 billion. Growth has been put at 26.3 percent for the year compared to the earlier projection of 24.9 percent growth for 2006 over 2005.
The research firm had formerly projected growth to decline slightly (-2.1 percent) in 2007 compared to 2006; however that has also been revised upwards with a slight increase over 2006 (0.6 percent) being forecasted. In its weekly newsletter, Gartner's analysts noted that there was a strong possibility that front-end equipment sales would actually decline in 2007 as chip manufacturers adjust capacity utilisation more inline with demand, creating a ‘pause' in spending trends through the year.
Nevertheless, this ‘pause' is not set to spark higher spending in 2008, according to Gartner. Spending on front-end equipment is now projected to rise by 18.4 percent compared to 21.8 percent in last year's forecast.
2008 will also be the last year of front-end capital equipment spending growth, as Gartner is projecting a bigger decline in 2009 than previously projected. In 2009, spending will decline by 11.3 percent compared to the previous projection of an 8.3 percent decline for the year.
2010 is expected to be flat to slightly positive compared to 2009 with a potential 0.8 percent growth in front-end equipment spending. Real growth is expected to return in 2011 with Gartner expecting spending to rise by 18.4 percent compared to 2010.
When including other equipment sectors such as automated test and assembly, 2010 is projected to be a negative growth year with a 17.4 percent decline.
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