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Is this the year of the ASP? |
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Jan 04, 2007 at 05:25 PM |
Something that didn't happen last year could be the thing that happens this year that could force red faces at the market research firms regarding 2007 forecasts. The missing piece of the semiconductor market in 2006 was a return to rising Average Selling Prices (ASPs).
In a strong market with capacity utilization high and rising we would normally see ASP trends heading upwards - something Malcolm Penn over at Future Horizons noted at the beginning of 2006 would help push the industry into the 20 percent growth range.
We didn't get that growth figure and we didn't get rising ASPs. However, Penn is now anticipating that figures not out until May from WSTS will be key in noting whether ASPs have finally started to rise. If so, then revenue growth could be much higher than current projections.
iSuppli also noted yesterday that they believe ASPs have stabilized, but the company didn't go as far as Penn did in his monthly report as to whether ASPs are expected to rise, and the impact this may have on forecasts.
With 2007 expected by iSuppli to be the peak year of this current cycle, any ASP rise could have a big positive impact and is one we will keep a close eye on this year.
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