The current year is expected to see a strong 18 percent growth in wafer shipments, according to the latest SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG) demand consensus survey.
"We are currently seeing unprecedented demand, driven by the end market electronic applications. The silicon segment that is experiencing the greatest growth is 300mm, which is anticipated to be over 30% of total silicon volumes in 2007," stated Tatsuhiko Shigematsu, chairman of SEMI SMG and technology officer of SUMCO Corporation. The survey highlights that silicon shipments will reach 7,811 million square inches in 2006; 8,199 million square inches in 2007; 9,370 million square inches in 2008; and 9,764 million square inches in 2009.
Although total wafer shipments will have a CAGR above 10 percent from 2005 through 2009, year-on-year growth will fluctuate significantly, according to the survey. While 18 percent growth is expected for 2006, this falls to a mere 5 percent growth in 2007. The same is projected to occur in 2008 and 2009 with 15 percent growth in 2008, but only 4 percent growth in 2009.
The cause for the fluctuation or slowing CAGR was not revealed, though with 300mm wafers becoming the key growth wafer size, new fab announcements or projected capacity ramp factors may be contributing to the phenomena. A potential industry slowdown in 2008 does not seem to be factored into the wafer demand projections.

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