Equipment sales this year are expected to
come in below that of 2004 in all sectors and in all regions except
South Korea, according to the SEMI Capital Equipment Consensus
Forecast, released by SEMI at SEMICON Japan. However, the period
2006-2008 is expected to be all smiles with not a negative percentage
change in sight.
The biggest decline in 2005 capital equipment sales comes
from China, where spending is expected to fall 54.1% from 2004's $2.73 billion
to $1.24 billion. Worldwide, the wafer processing segment is expected to drop
9.7% from $25.45 billion to $22.97 billion.
In the period 2006-2008, growth is expected to increase
steadily from 9.1% (wafer processing 6.8%) in 2006 to 15.4% (wafer processing
17.5%) in 2008. China is expected to lead the growth (despite its dismal 2005
performance!) at the 26-28% level through the period to 2008. In money terms,
wafer processing is expected to reach $32.70 billion and total semiconductor
processing equipment $46.63 billion.
"Capital spending in 2005 reflects an anticipated
cyclic decline following the very high investment levels of the prior year.
However, this remains the third strongest year for worldwide semiconductor
equipment sales," comments SEMI President and CEO Stanley Myers.
"Furthermore, SEMI members expect the equipment market to continue posting
sequential gains over the next three years as chipmakers continue to invest in
300mm fabs and 65nm technology."
The SEMI Year-End Consensus Forecast is based on interviews
conducted between late October and November 2005 with companies representing a
majority of the total sales volume for the global semiconductor equipment
industry.
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