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Semiconductor doom & gloom too early, says Future Horizons
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Malcolm Penn at Future Horizons believes it is too early to ‘write off’
2008 as a bad year for the semiconductor industry as overall company
balance sheets are strong and industry fundamentals have not changed
for the worse.
Penn wants the industry to push aside worries about economic
recession as demand for ICs remains strong. Indeed, Penn believes that
if we do not see ASPs rise much in 2008, they most certainly will in
2009, raising sales and profits.
Penn noted that IC unit
growth continues to be strong at 12.9 percent year-on-year for January
2008 compared to January 2007 “making IC ASPs the sole cause of the
current industry’s problems.”
Fundamentally, Future Horizons' Penn believes that it is far too early in the 2008 cycle to start slashing forecasts.
“Our
forecast of 12 percent market growth is predicated on a 4 percent
decline in the first quarter of 2008 versus the last quarter of 2007,
followed by a flat second quarter and a strong second-half rebound. If
Q1 is more negative, the 12 percent number will fall, but if the second
half is stronger, 12 percent is in the bag.”
